PLO

Fresh from a week of traveling through the East Coast, I spent Sunday and Monday playing marathon sessions of Pot Limit Omaha. Why? I don't know. I'm not a great Omaha player (yet). If I wanted only to make money I should play Hold'Em. But Omaha still holds many mysteries; that's part of its appeal. It keeps me interested.

I played mostly B- poker, won a very small amount, and mostly ran ok. I probably still bluff too much; especially at low stakes, this is a mistake. But, against thinking opponents, Omaha offers lots of opportunities for creative bluffs.

A hand that came up yesterday illustrates this. I'm on the button with (As Ac 8h 7d). Two players ahead of me limp, and I bet the pot. I get one caller, a tight, thinking player UTG. So far this player, who I'll call "Marine" (his icon on the poker site I play at was a US Marine in dress uniform) lead out on a flop of (10h 2h 2c), betting exactly half the pot.

You can make an argument to call, raise, or fold here. I had noticed, however, that this player tended to bet smaller when he had drawing hands than he did with made hands. (A pretty common phenomenon. People who have good hands bet more than people who don't. Seems obvious, but it's true.) It's unlikely that he would have a two in his hand and if he had tens full he would either bet pot or, more likely, check in an attempt to go for a check raise.

I decided that he probably had a flush draw--although a two was not impossible. I called, figuring that if the heart flush did not hit, he might give up.

Instead, the turn was a King of hearts. Again, Marine bet out half the pot (about 20$). Again, I called. Why? I have no idea, except that his half-pot bets made me feel like he was weak. So far during that session I had played very tight; he hadn't seen me bluff once. He was also way up in the game, and I thought it was likely that he would be wanting to protect his winnings, and not want to put in a lot of money with a medium strength hand. If he had a flush now, he still had to be worried that I had filled up--a distinct possibility given that Kings or Aces are the most likely hands for me to raise preflop.

I thought that calling the turn might seem like a smooth call--like I was trying to lure him in to betting into my Kings full. Or at least, I thought that it COULD look that way. It was possible that HE had Kings full, in which case I was in big big trouble.

The river was a brick and again he lead out, but this time for only 30$, into a pot of about 90$.

I then reraised, all-in (for about another 120$). He thought for a long, long time. Clearly he had some kind of flush and didn't want to let it go. But at last, he folded. He'd decided to give me credit for Kings full. Which I might have had. But I didn't.

Then a few hours later I donked away that same hundred making a hugely inopportune bluff into someone who'd flopped quad eights. In poker, if you want to bluff, you should not bluff someone who has four of a kind. That's an old saying. And it's true.

Poker Challenge

This is big news in the poker world.  Young online phenom Tom Dwan has challenged all comers to play him heads-up, at least four tables at a time, for a minimum of 200/400 blinds.  They must play at least 50,000 hands.  If Dwan loses money, he has promised to pay his opponent 1.5 million dollars (on top of whatever he's already lost).  If Dwan wins, he gets 500,000$ from his opponent.

Patrik Antonius and Phil Ivey have already accepted. 

Should be interesting.  For those of you who have real lives and jobs, 50,000 hands is a massive massive amount--even four-tabling.  It should take months.  Given those stakes, someone could lose 3 million easy, independent of the side action.

You can read a long debate about it(and some clarifications) here.

A Big Pot, A Big Bluff

I play poker online for about an hour a day.  Mostly I play low-stakes hold'em: the games are soft, and it's a relatively painless way of generating some extra income.  It's also incredibly boring.  Low stakes players don't fold much, and you have to hold hands to win pots.  To alleviate the tedium, I've started to mix in a few tables of Pot Limit Omaha.  I used to play a lot of Omaha, but the style I used at the time was conservative to the point of timid.  What I'm doing now yields higher profits, but exposes me to much greater swings of capital.  It involves a lot more bluffing, and a lot more preflop raising.  The result is that the people I play with tend to view me as a loose cannon, and give me action.  Sometimes that's good; when I get big hands, I get paid off.  The problem is that it exposes me to a fair number of bluffs.  People know I often don't have the hands I represent and think they can push me out of pots by big bets.  When I don't have anything at all, folding's no problem.  It's when I have good but not GREAT hands that things get dicey.  (This is a rarely-discussed problem with bluffing a lot.  It become paradoxically much harder to put your opponents on hands. )

For example, yesterday I raised to 7$ from the cuttoff with AsKs5h4d.  The button and small blind called.  Then, the big blind (a very loose player) min-raised to 16$.  All but the small blind called.  The flop came Kh Kc 10c.  The big blind checked to me and I bet 30$ into a nearly 40$ pot.  Everyone folded but the big blind, who called.  The turn came the 9clubs, putting both a straight and a flush on the board.  The big blind lead out into me, for the size of the pot (100$).  I had about 150$ behind, and had to figure out what to do.

Tricky tricky tricky.  On the one hand, my trip kings are now beat by both straight and flushes.  In theory, that means I should fold (I don't have the right pot odds to call in hopes of making a full house on the river).  If I am going to call, I have to shove my stack into the pot; there's no point in calling off 100$ and leaving 50$ behind.  The question is, what does my opponent have?

In hold'em this might be an easy fold.  The problem is that Omaha is not Hold'Em.  When I bet the flop, I'm representing at minimum three kings.  However, it's pretty likely I could have a full house at that point, and my opponent should know that.  The range of hands that I would raise and then call a reraise with preflop includes lots of kings and tens.  Furthermore, I WOULD bet a full house in that spot; I want to get value from a lesser king, first of all, and I know the big blind doesn't respect my bets very much at this point and will call just about any flop bet (at least he has been so far).  There's no reason to check the full house there, and I wouldn't do it.

His lead on the turn represents a made hand.  The question is, would he chase a flush or a straight draw with a pair on the board?  In general, doing so in Omaha, is, as they say, bad cess.  Calling out of position to hit a non-nut hand seems like a pretty poor play, and though my opponent here is loose and aggressive, that doesn't mean he's stupid.  He knows my flop bet represents at least three kings. He can't know if I have a full house or not, but he at least knows it's possible.  The normal line for someone who'd made a straight or flush on that turn would be to check and call, hoping that I wouldn't bet unless I actually had the full house.  There's no point in leading out right there; you can really only get called by better hands.  

I write all this, although thinking back I can now see reasons why a flush might bet there; especially if he puts me on a hand like the one I have.  But, as I noted, the big blind is playing very loose and making a number of large bets.  So far I haven't seen him show many hands (he's been mostly running over the table) but I know he's betting way too often to have real hands every time.  So, after taking time to think, I push all-in.  He insta-calls and I figure: I'm dead.  (Even if I'm wrong, I decide that I have outs to a full house).  And he shows....nothing (Q 10 6 7).  He's drawing mostly dead, and when the river bricks off, I scoop the pot.  

Happy days.  Tough decision though, and one of the reasons I both love and hate Omaha.  

Poker Quiz, II

Here's what I did on the hands mentioned earlier.

1. My read on the player was that he was tight, even nitty.  He wasn't a young stud; he didn't seem capable of making boldly creative plays.  Going on that, I put him on either QQ, JJ, 10/10, AQ, or AK.  Those are the hands that someone who plays his style would have opening UTG.  I don't think he had AA or KK because, given his style, he would have reraised my button raise pre-flop.  I also don't think he had a smaller pair because, given his style he wouldn't have raised UTG, he would have limped.

What that meant was that after the flop (10 J Q) I was almost certainly behind.  The only hand in his range that I beat was AQ.  For everything else, he had either flopped a set or made the nuts.  Again, given his style, I thought his opening check suggested a strong hand.  Most average touristy-type players will generally check huge hands on the flop, hoping to check-raise.  (This, by the way, is one reason I generally advocate leading out with a big hand.  Paradoxically, it often disguises the strength of your hand).  I felt, given my read, that my check was the right play.  If he had any of the hands I put him on, a bet would only amp a pot he was winning.  And if he had a set, I might unwittingly force myself to fold.  Since I had an up and down straight draw, seeing a free card could only help.  Right?

Yes and no.  The problem with the 9 (the turn card) was that it might have made me the second-best hand.  I'm beating a set, of course, but I'm still losing to AK.  And the more I studied this dude the more I believed he had AK.  Then, he lead out--for 200$.  Again, what hand could he do this with?  An eight?  Well, maybe--but I didn't think he'd called my preflop raise with 88, much less opened with it.  A set?  Again, possible, but I thought he would check a set or two pair, hoping to improve to a full house, or at least see a cheap river.  The fact that the 9 gave the board two spades lead me to believe he was betting to protect a flush draw.

I could have called here, of course.  But 200$ was almost half of my stack, and I didn't see the point of a call.  What was I going to do if I called and he shoved the river?  What was I going to do if the board paired?  The turn is often the point where you commit yourself (or not) to getting all your chips in.   That's why I try not to call large bets there.  Here it seemed like, if I called, I would be committing myself to getting all my chips in.  And, as I said, my read was that he had AK.  It hurts, but sometimes you have to fold the second-nuts.  Which is what I did (after a lot of agonizing).

2) My read here was that the player on the button was tight, and when he reraised I was worried.  He had called me preflop on the button--not raised.  To me that meant he couldn't have KK.  QQ was possible, but wouldn't he just call my flop bet with QQ, worried that I might have him beat?  (I had played very tight to that point, and I had, after all raised from very early position).  The raise worried me.  Again, I don't see the point of me calling here.  Either I'm way ahead, or way behind.  There are no draws to speak of; if he has QQ he's probably going to call a shove here (assuming he thinks it's good enough to raise with).  If he has a set, he's going to bet the next two streets, and, again, I'm going to get further and further into a pot.  To my sometimes detriment, I try to play raise and fold poker much as possible.  Calling is always my least favorite option.  So, convinced that the player had a set of 4s or 10s, I folded.  Because good players make good laydowns... Right?

Results

The first player did indeed have AK.  Everyone was impressed by my fold (I had showed my neighbor my kings).  I was elated: I felt like I had just saved myself 500$.  Because in poker, it's not that hands you win, it's the hands you don't lose....  (Postscript: the same player got all his money in against me an hour later with two pair to my nut flush, and drew out on me on the river to win a 500$ pot.  Oh well).

The second player had KK.  He had decided to trap me before the flop by merely calling raise, figuring I had QQ or JJ and would go broke on a board of low cards.  A situation where his unorthodox play totally fooled me, though not in the way he intended.  I just did not put him on KK--I assumed he would reraise that hand preflop with two players in the pot already (and one a maniac).  Had I gone all-in, he would have called in a heartbeat and I would have won (assuming it held up) a big, big pot.

The problem with having 1000$ behind you.  You have to be willing to make big laydowns, and sometimes they are bad ones.

So, one good laydown and one bad one.  Oh well.

A Poker Quiz

Instead of writing about poker as I have in the past--a strict narrative recounting--I'm going to try something new.   I'm going to give you the information I had at the time of making relatively big decisions and let you all tell me what you would do.  In a week or so, I'll post again, tell you what I did in each situation, and how it worked it out.  Both of these hands occurred in Las Vegas in the last few months; in both instances I later found out what hand my opponent held.

Hand One: The Wynn Casino, 2/5 NL

I have been sitting at the table for about an hour.  I have played tight aggressive and have built up my 400$ buy-in to about 550$.  I haven't shown down a hand yet.

My opponent raises under the gun to 30$.  He gets one caller in middle position.  On the button, I look down to see KK.  I raise to 90$.  Both players call.  They each have about 500$ in front of them.

The flop comes 10s Jc Qd.  Both players check to me.  I check.

The turn: 9s.  The UTG player leads out for 200$.  The middle position player dithers out loud for a long time, and more or less tells the table he's behind but he wants to gamble.  He calls the 200$.  

Action is to me.  What should I do?

Before you answer, here's what I know about the UTG player (the middle position player is irrelevant).  He's late-30s, early 40s.  Slightly balding beneath a canvas-type baseball cap.  I believe I've heard him say to someone that he owns a car dealership out of state.  He's not played many hands.  

Hand Two: The Bellagio.  5/10 NL.

This was one of my first forays into 5/10 NL.  I have about 800$ in front of me, and the rest of the players at the table have the same.  I have dropped about 200$ over the course of about three hands in 1.5 hours.  

In  early position, I look down at AA.   A massive massive donk in front of me limps for 10$.  He has played nearly every hand at this point.  I raise to 60$ (the standard opening at the table).  A player on the button calls.  The donk calls.  

The flop comes: 4 10 2, rainbow.  The donk checks.  I lead out for 120$.   The button player makes it 350$.   The donk folds.

Action is to me.  What do I do?

The button player, the raiser, is a heavyset late 20s guy.  Friendly, and clearly from out of state.  He has sat down about 30 minutes ago.  He did not post until the big blind came around to him, waiting for about 15 minutes at the table.  He has played one hand so far, calling a preflop bet and then folding the flop.

All right, let's go: feedback!

The Return To Form Black Magic

Back from Vegas where despite playing mostly B- poker, I managed to bring home some decent dollars. A few random thoughts, mostly poker-related:

-There is no time more dangerous for a poker player than when s/he sits down at a new table. You don't know who's solid or loose; you don't know tendencies; you don't know anything. That's why I think it's not a bad idea to fold every hand except AA or KK for the first hour at a new table. Really. I could have saved myself 500$ easily had I heeded that advice this week.

-Of the people who tell you or carry themselves like professional poker players--especially the ones in their 20s--maybe only 5% is really good enough to make a living at it. The rest just like the myth of it. These are the guys who exude the most attitude. They raise lots of pots in late position with 6/8s. They have complicated headphone setups. The straddle every time they can. And they cannot make laydowns.

-If you were to resolve, when playing casino poker, never to bluff, you would save yourself money.

-If you were to resolve, when playing casino poker, always to assume your opponents have exactly the hand they're representing, you would save yourself money.

-If you were to completely forego playing suited connectors, you would save yourself money. Exception: you are ON THE BUTTON (not one off) and there are three people ahead of you in the pot. Not two: three.

-Limping in first position with AA is often a good play.

-Do not go or stay to the Hard Rock Hotel. Unless you are consumed by a need to see a signed copy of the guitar Jon Bon Jovi played at the Woodlands in 92. Or whatever.

-Anyone who thinks playing poker "professionally" is fun should try sitting in one seat for six hours, playing six hands, and losing four of them. Which is what I did today.

-The bright side: the four hands I lost cost me 60$. The two I won netted me 450$.

-If would pay 1000$ in cash to anyone who could guarantee I never see the Q3o again.

-Same with the 69o.

-MAN I saw those hands a lot.

-And not even suited!!!

-Taco Bell: not as good a guilty pleasure as you may remember. Although their "fiery" sauce, while not actually fiery, is quite tasty. I saved some for my Cheerios.

-If you bet a flop containing two suited cards and get a caller, check the turn if it completes the flush. If they check behind you, 80% chance they just made the nuts. If the river doesn't give you any new options, make a very small probe bet: 1/5 the pot, say--as though to represent a value bet of a nut flush of your own. If you get raised, fold. I know: it's possible a canny opponent has recognized the pattern, and raised you off the best hand. But, as noted earlier, assuming that you're being bluffed is death. Fold. Good players make good laydowns. That is THE skill, at 2/5 and 5/10 NL. Nothing else comes close.

-If you never played any cards because they were suited except Ax, you'd wind up ahead. Q4 or K5 of clubs are losing hands.

-"Stranger's Almanac" by Whiskeytown is a great album to listen to while driving through the desert at night. It is NOT a great album to listen to while playing cards. Unless you plan on drinking yourself to death while you sit there. Which is not a terrible plan, really.

-The money in poker comes from other people's mistakes. Yes, you can occasionally take pots through cunning and brilliance. But very rarely. (At least, at low levels). Your goal at the poker table: do not make mistakes. Let your opponents make them. Then, take their money.

-The word that most perfectly captures what Vegas is NOT: Snuggly.

Vegas Poker Report: II

I know: you're all desperate to hear more poker stories. The response to the last post has been overwhelming. The letters, the phone calls, the emails. The telegraphs. It's almost too much. Thank you! Thank you all! I'm just glad I could make so many of you happy.

Anyway, because I promised I would, here's more of the Vegas trip.

* * *

Sunday night I won again, mostly because I was fortunate enough to make a set of Queens on a board of AKQ against an opponent who had AQ. She folded her hand on the river after deciding her two pair was beat, but at that point she had already put several hundred dollars into the pot.

The next day, Monday, started at Caesar's. I was fortunate (sort of) to be seated at a huge action table. A Middle Eastern gentleman was raising nearly every pot preflop, running over the table with a super-aggressive style and a lot of bravado. He fit a certain kind of stereotype; he had his shirt unbuttoned almost to his navel; he wore a number of gold chains, he threw around a lot of cash (at one point in the session he had thirty hundred-dollar bills in his stack) and he had a temper. He was also not afraid to call, bet, or raise with any two cards. His whole game, in fact, was about proving that he wasn't afraid. It's a common trait with men of certain cultural backgrounds. What they care about most at a table is not winning money, or playing 'smart', it's proving to themselves and everyone else that they aren't afraid. Sammy Farha is a variation of this type player.

And when they're getting hands, they are very hard to play against, because you never know what cards they're holding. An example: early on in this session I found myself in middle position with 88. Two players had already limped in ahead of me and I decided to do the same. Angry Middle Eastern Man had yet to act--he was in the small blind--and I felt fairly certain he would raise it (as he did 4/5 of the time) when the action got around to him. I was planning to call a medium size raise if enough people were in the pot and hopw to flop a set.

Of course that's not what happened. Five people called and when it got to Angry Middle Eastern Man he raised All-in. (!?) He had around 900$ in front of him, and he was betting that into a pot that held about 30$. Everyone folded, and it got back to me. Now, this seems like an obvious fold. Even if he has AK, I'm not a big favorite. Typically, in a cash game, optimum strategy dictates you avoid playing coin flips for large amounts of cash. The thing is, against this guy--and this guy only--88 was likely to be a pretty large favorite. He could have literally any two cards--he'd made a similar move a few hands earlier and shown J2. Still, I didn't want to risk it. What if this was the time he had Kings? (Well, he didn't have Kings. He'd try to get more value out of kings). I folded, thinking I'd wait for a better spot. A late-position player called; he only had 200$ in chips and he held AQ; I thought it was a good call. It turned out to be a great call when AMEM tabled A7. Of course you know what happened: a seven peeled off on the flop, and late-position player went bust. Had I called, I would have doubled up.

About an hour later I played the biggest hand of my day--hell, of my week. UTG, I found myself looking at KK. Oh joyous day, calloo, callay. Counting on AMEM to raise for me (he was on the button) I limped in. A few players also limped until it got to AMEM who, true to form, raised the pot to 45.00$. Thinking I'd take the pot down right there, I reraised to 120.00$. Everyone folded to AMEM who, naturally, called. (When you fear no one, you never fold. Folding is for the weak--those who lack machismo).

The flop came: A 9 4. And I was sore afraid. Of COURSE there was an Ace--the card every player holding KK dreads. At this point I had about 450.00$ in front of me, certainly too much to just shove it all in there and hope that AMEM missed. I checked. Without even thinking about it, AMEM says he's all-in.

Well, damn. What does that mean? Simple: either he has an Ace, or he knows I don't have an Ace.

I sat back, considering. Was it possible he had an Ace? Of course. Hell, he could have 9-4 and have just made two pair. The more important question is if he'd had an Ace, would he really bet so much? There's only about 250.00$ in the pot. He's just bet his entire stack (really my entire stack) into that pot (about 450.00$). That's a significant overbet. Wouldn't he try to get some value out of his hand if he had an Ace?

The MOST important question: what does he think I have? Based on my preflop actions (the limp reraise), he has to put me on one of about three hands: AA, KK, or QQ. If I have AA, he knows an all-in bet like this is idiotic, but if I have either of the other two, it's probably going to scare me. (And it has). He's seen how tightly I've played for the last two hours. I've folded almost every hand I've had. And look at me! A quiet, pale, white guy with glasses and headphones. I may as well have a pocket protector. I sure look like the kind of player who's going to fold to a big bet unless I hold the stone-cold nuts.

The thing is, I know he knows that. I know my image so far, and I know that any decent player (and though crazy, AMEM is not stupid) is going to try to exploit what he perceives to be my weaknesses. This kind of bet would never work on HIM, but it might work on me.

It might, it might. ("But time will not relent.") But after I think about it for a minute (while the table sits in expectant silence) I decide it's much more likely he's on a steal than holding an Ace. Somewhat ruefully, like a man taking off his pants in a crowded station (wait...no) I call. Before I even show my hand, he says "good call." Huzzah! Blood rushes through my head. I sing and dance (quietly, palely, whitely). I never get to see his hand (he tells me he has a small pocket pair), but when I show my kings I say "it was a good bet; I almost folded." He says "it was a better call."

And you know what? He's right: it WAS a good call. (It was also a HUGE rush. For the next hour I feel like I'd just parachuted off of a bridge). Yes, it's an obvious bluffing opportunity. Yes, every piece of evidence did point to AMEM being on a steal. But you know what--it's still a hard call (at least, at this point in my poker career). Even if I fold to his bet, I'm ahead for the session. That kind of reasoning SHOULDN'T enter into one's calculations, but it usually does.

The thing is, if bitches want to play me, they're gonna get got. I look meek, I don't talk a lot, and I usually fold. That whole image sets me up as someone who's easy to bluff out of pots, and probably I usually am. But that doesn't mean I'm some kind of punk, you know. Hell no. HELLS NO.

Cue: Wu-Tang Clan, pistol shots, the smashing of empty St. Ives' bottles on the pavement. Mayhem.

Vegas Poker Report: I

I got back from Las Vegas Tuesday night, after two and a half straight days of poker. The trip went well; I played some of my best poker while I was there, and managed to make my monthly "nut" in only nine sessions. Here's a recap of some notable hands, players, and wombat death squads I encountered while there.

Sunday

I arrive at 2 pm, check into the MGM (room courtesy of L. Thanks, man!), and take a cab to the Bellagio. I check out their Omaha H/L game, thinking I'll start there. Unfortunately, it's 30/60--too big for my present bankroll. I decide to play No Limit Hold'em, and I walk to Caesar's. I prefer Caesar's poker room to the Bellagio because it's quieter and less crowded. Caesar's also has nine players to a table; the Bellagio has ten. I have long legs (and a beak); I prefer nine.

My strategy for the week is simple: buy in at every table for 300$, play until I've doubled up, leave, and repeat. I wouldn't say that I'm confident this will work, but I do feel like my No Limit cash game has gotten significantly better in the last six months. I've made a lot of small changes to the way I play, I've gotten much better and avoiding tilt, and I think I'm just generally more confident in my own reads. But it's poker. Anything can happen.

The session at Caesar's goes more or less as planned. My second hand at the table is JJ. An early position player raises to 30$: I reraise to 70$, trying to test his hand. If he comes back over the top, I'll give him credit for an overpair and fold. However, he just calls. The flop comes all rags; he checks, and I bet 120$. He thinks for a long time and folds. I assume he has AK.

I move seats a few hands later to be on the left of the table's resident action player. A backwoods kid from Arkansas with a strong Southeastern accent, he's playing at least 50% of his hands preflop, and calling down on all three streets with middle or bottom pair. He's also hitting hands; he has at least 1500$ in front of him. He tells the table that he's a tournament player new to cash games who really has no idea what he's doing. I'm not sure if he's being honest or trying to set us up. He's not a donkey, I don't think--just a loose player who likes action.

A few hands later, Arkansas boy puts me to the test. I'm dealt AA in middle position and raise it to 30$. Three people call, including him. The flop comes 10/10/7. The first two players check and Arkansas leads into me for 80.00$. Based on his play so far, I'm fairly certain my Aces are good (I don't think he's trick enough to bet out here). My worry, though, is that one of the blind players has a 10, and has decided to check-raise. I call, resolving to fold if one of the first two players reraises. Happily for me, they both fold. Arkansas checks the turn (a blank) and I go all-in for another 200+ dollars. He harasses me a little and then folds. An hour later I win another decent pot when an older player calls me on the flop with bottom pair, hits two pair on the river, and pays off my set. This is why you don't call flop bets with a pair of threes, boys and girls. Also why leading out when you've flopped a set is often a good idea. You get value, and you often paradoxically disguise the strength of your hand. Up 300+, I cash out and walk back to the Bellagio.

Unsurprisingly, the table I'm assigned at the Bellagio is fairly strong. A know-it-all to my left is giving poker lessons to another player (to his left)--teaching him the intricacies of semi-bluffing, probe bets, and so forth. I hope to take him down; I feel like he's got too much ego for his own good (though he's very friendly). He turns out to be a decent player, however, and refuses to pay me off when I make fours full of jacks against him in a big blind hand.

One great improvement I see in my cash game over the last year is the way I play AK. In tournaments (which is really where I learned to play Hold'Em), reraising in middle and late positions with this hand is often the right play. In cash games, though, I think it pays to play AK very softly. It rarely wins you big pots, anyway: when a Ace is on the flop and there's significant action, it's more likely that someone has two pair than an Ace with a worse kicker. If you play it too fast preflop you're likely to scare off the very hands you want in the pot with you--AJ, A10, etc. Also, if you play it slow preflop, you don't feel any need to continue on after you miss. (How many people have gone broke trying to represent a big pair with AK after a ragged flop?)

My new handling of AK helps me a win a significant pot after about an hour at the Bellagio. An early position player raises to 30.00$, and a middle position player--a French kid who's been running well--calls. I have AKo and elect to call. The flop comes K 4 8. Early position checks and Frenchy bets 40.00$. I call. Although a reraise here isn't terrible, I don't want to commit myself too deeply to the hand just yet. It's possible Early Position is planning a check raise with AA or KK. It's possible Frenchy has a set, too. People assume you need to reraise to gain information from opponents, but often a call is just as effective--and much cheaper.

Early position folds. The turn is a 3. Frenchy checks. I feel confident at this point that he has a King--I put him on KJ or KQ--and try to figure out how I can bet and still get called. I bet 55.00$; he calls in a heartbeat. The river in a 6. He checks again; I bet 100.00$. He again calls quickly and tables K10. Mon ami! You can't play K10 in middle position to a raise! I probably could have bet much more on both streets, in retrospect. Like many good but not great mid-limit players, Frenchy can't fold top pair. My win here comes through his poor pre- and post- flop play, not my own skill, but that's fine. A win is a win. By the way, note that a preflop reraise here almost certainly scares off K10 and therefore wins me a much smaller pot. On the other hand, if a 10 appears on the turn or river, I'm in trouble. I was ready to slow down if a J or Q came off, but no way do I think he's stuck around all that way with just a 10.

Next time: I face off with a Stereotype and play Omaha High.

Poker: A Hand and A Question

The Hand

Just back from Puerto Rico. The last time I was there the casinos offered only 5/10 Limit, but they have No-Limit now. Here's a hand that came up after about a two hours of play.

Blinds were 2/5. I have played bone-tight since I sat down, raising only one pot preflop, and folding all the rest. The game is filled with maniacs.

I open UTG with JJ. The first pocket pair I've seen. I raise to 30$. Everybody folds until it gets to the Big Blind--an older man with what looks like dyed red hair. He has played very tight so far--checkraising two maniacs out of a hand on the turn with a big bet and the Nut Full House several hands ago. Anyone else at the table, holding the same full house (Kings full of Jacks) would almost certainly have called the turn and hoped one of the maniacs hit their draws on the river, but Red Dye pushed hard--too hard--on 4th street, turning what should have been a 400$ pot into a 150$ pot. (In No Limit the real skill isn't in winning hands; it's in maximizing the amount you earn on the hands you do win).

I go into his backstory because his tightness should have affected my play in this hand. But I'm getting ahead of myself.

From out of the big blind, he now reraises to 60.00$. Several things go through my head:
1) Oh no! Not THIS guy.
2) Is there any hand he would reraise with that I can beat?
3) Why such a small raise?

Probably he has me beat. Maybe he has KK and is making a tester raise to see if I will come back over the top. Or, maybe he has AA and is just trying to juice the pot. Could he have AK? If it's me and I have AK, I just call an UTG bet from a tight player. But donkeys abound.

First big decision: call, fold, raise? I can't reraise with JJ. But I don't want to fold. His cheap reraise has given me a chance to see a flop and maybe hit a big hand. If he has does have AA and the flop comes J 4 2, is there any way he's going to be able to get away from the hand? I doubt it. He has 300$ behind, so I'm effectively getting better than 10-1 on my call.

I call.

The flop: Q 9 5, two clubs.

I'm not too worried about the Queen; there's no way this guy has reraised with AQ. If he has QQ, well, I was beat anyway.

I lead out, to see if he has a big pair, betting 100$. He thinks for 20 seconds or so and calls.

I think: if he had KK or AA, he would reraise. He must have either 10/10, J/J, or AK. AK makes the most sense; he's probably calling to hope to hit an A.

The turn is a 4. I go all-in (220$). He calls and tables AA.

I'm broke.

So obviously I played the hand badly. I should have checked the turn. What threw me off is that Red Dye really was worried on the flop. He wasn't pretending to think; he really didn't know if he should call. I assumed that weakness meant he couldn't beat JJ; in other words, I assumed he would play the hand like I would play the hand. If I'm the one with AA there, I reraise the flop. He didn't--not because he was trapping, but because he was worried I might have a set of queens (I think). He knew how tightly I'd been playing thus far, and he was actually worried about his Aces.

It's an interesting hand only because it shows how much our opponents affect our play. If I'm heads-up in that same situation against a strong, pro-type player, I will immediately become afraid after he calls my flop bet. I know a strong player won't call with just AK, so I'm beat. But because everyone else at my table in Puerto Rico was playing loose and stupid (calling 50$ preflop bets with 8 2, e.g.) I assumed, subconsciously, that Red Dye was also loose and stupid. (It didn't help that he looked like he'd just broken out of a mental ward). I made an unwarranted assumption about his play, and it hurt me.

I also got hurt by not thinking more deeply about the table image I was projecting. Red Dye knows how tight I am; he can't believe I'm bluffing. Therefore, if he calls, he MUST have a good hand. Finally, I got hurt because of my own prejudices. I assumed that AA or KK would HAVE to raise that flop--because that's what most 'good' players would do. But everyone plays differently, and trying to make reads on people based on my opinions about how they SHOULD play is not ideal. Instead I need to try to think about how my opponents DO play. And that requires imagination.

In retrospect, I think the right line is to call pre-flop, thinking I'm probably beat, and then either check it down or make a small 1/2 pot-sized bet on the flop and if that gets called, check it down. It's possible that line forces me, against some opponents, to lay down the winning hand. But good players lay down good hands--winning hands, even--all the time. I was impatient and I didn't give my opponent enough credit. And that hurt me.


The Question

A decent player raises UTG. You are on the button with A7 of clubs. How many players do you need to call the UTG raise in front of you before you'll also call?

What do you all think?

Sort of A Poker Post

Poker IV

I haven't written about poker in a long time. A long, long time. Mostly because I haven't played much in the last few months. That, and the goiter.

But, I'm just returned from Las Vegas ("The Big Easy") where I DID play poker (and won). So, to pacify my legion of enthusiastic readers (Legion!) I will describe two of the more significant hands I played this week. One of them, I played well. Another, not so well.


Setting: The Venetian 550$ Buy-in Friday Hold 'Em


Hand One

Blinds: 500/1000
Ante: 50

Midway through the tournament. We are down from four to two tables. I have the biggest chip stack at the table. To my left sits the other big stack at the table ("Cigarette"). He has an unlit cigarette dangling from his mouth, orange aviator glasses, and a variety of mustache generally associated with 1970s porn stars. So far he has played a loose aggressive game; my read on him is that he's not afraid to move chips around.

I am in the SB with 9/4 offsuit. Everyone folds. I call the blind (500) figuring that since we are the two big stacks and I outchip him (barely) we will play a small, unexciting pot.

Cigarette sees it differently. He doesn't check; he raises: 4000 more.

Most of the time, I would fold. After all, I have a terrible hand and very little invested in the pot. But something here feels wrong. My Spidey-sense, as it were, is tingling. I don't think he has NOTHING; but neither do I think he's especially strong. Most of all, I think he wants to take the hand down right now; he probably has a hand like AQ.

At this point, my table reputation is fairly tight. I've played only a few hand in the last hour. Almost every time, I've showed good cards. I should--SHOULD--be able to push him around. Or so I think. So, I raise 6000 more, for a total bet of 10,000. He considers long and hard. I try to study him; unfortunately the dealer sits directly between us. I sense, though, that he's not happy about my reraise. I'm not sure he completely believes me--he knows I know he seemed weak on his first bet--but he's definitely thinking.

He calls.

The flop comes: 3 7 8 rainbow. This is a great flop. If, as I suspect, he had high cards, it missed him altogether. So far my bets have represented a large pocket pair. This is the kind of flop that I should like. I lead out and bet 7000. He folds.

I show my cards to the table. I don't want to come off as a jerk; at the same time, I don't want to have to play big pots against him in the future. If he sees I'm slightly unpredictable he might be inclined, in the future, to let me see flops for cheap. He'll also be less likely to bluff at me; he knows I might play back.

As it happens, Cigarette man busts out about thirty minutes later; my attempts to 'set him up' for the endgame go for naught.


Hand Two

Blinds: 1500/3000
Ante: 100

The final table. We are down to eight. The top five are paid. I am second in chips to the player on my left (Pony-tail). Pony-tail is a solid player; he's mostly folded since he sat down. Twenty minutes earlier he won a very large pot off of me when he backdoored a flush on the river and I paid him off with two pair. It was that hand that lost me the chip lead.

My cards: A9.

Everyone folds to me on the button: I raise to 8000. (Blinds are 1500/3000). Pony-tail thinks and then calls. I'm not happy. He has shown no interest in defending his blinds before this hand. If he calls, he has a hand. Unless I hit the flop HARD I am done with this hand.

The Flop: As Ac 6s

Hard to hit it much harder than that. Except, to my consternation, Pony-tail now leads out and bets into me for 12,000. ??? Puzzlement. Confusion. Hello?! McFly? Doens't he know that I'm the one with Trips?

Does he have a six? Does he have a middle pair (8/8)? Is he using his tight reputation to try and steal? Surely if he had an Ace he would check here--wouldn't he?

I'm not sure. I'm either way ahead or way behind. If the former, he'll only fold when I bet. If the latter, I don't want to put any more money into this pot. I call.

Turn: 8d

He checks. I check. Same reasoning as on the flop.

River: Ks.

He now bets 20,000. !!!! What the hell is going on here? I go into the tank. The river has completed a spade flush. Is it possible he was betting the flop on a flush draw? Or did he have AK, and just make Aces Full? Or has he read my calls for weakness and decided his middle pair is actually good? Or maybe he had KQ and is now making some kind of value bet?

I have to be beat. There is no hand I can beat that would lead into me on the flop and river. I have 60,000 in chips. 20,000 is a significant amount. Could he be on a stone-cold steal? Does Pony-tail have that kind of guts? He is almost guaranteed to make the money already; would he really risk so many chips on a bluff? No. He must have a hand.

Or so I think. But then, I call. I have to see it. I know I am beat, but I have to see it. Because I am a donkey.

He shows: AK. He was ahead the whole time. He checked the turn because he was worried that I had paired my kicker (he knew I had an ace, too) and had filled up. When the King hit the river, he knew he was good (obviously).

The king killed me. Any other river and we probably check it down. But, I also killed myself. On the river, I should have folded. I could have folded. I couldn't beat any hand that could bet there. But it's hard, hard, hard to fold three Aces, especially heads-up. It's hard, but not impossible. I should have done it. But I didn't.


Epilogue: Once we got down to six players we chopped the prize money. Pony-tail had 40% of the chips at that point; the rest of us each had about the same amount. He got 5gs, the rest of us got 2400. Not a bad tourny. But if only I had folded that river....

Poker III

My first foray into the LA poker world went...badly.

You never really know, when you lose, how much of it is due to bad luck and how much is due to poor play. It’s easy to assume that every time you win you played well. Similarly, it's easy to beat yourself up every time you lose. (As I have been all week). But the two don't necessarily relate. You can play very well and lose, and you can play very poorly and win. To play “well” means that you play in a way will win over the long term. It means you put money into bets that will win more often than they lose. But in the short term, anything can happen. If you’re constantly putting money in on hands that are 80% favorites, you’re a good player. Even so, 20% of the time—1 in 5—you’ll lose. And if your opponents are any good, realistically you’re much more likely to be putting money down on hands that are only 55-60% favorites.

So it’s helpful for me to think about how I play independently of how much I win or lose. To evaluate decisions, not results. (A tactic, by the way, that I think is useful outside of playing poker. That's why poker is REALLY interesting--because of how much it connects to).

I think I played OK last night. B-, let’s say. Maybe I’m just being charitable.

Most of my losses occurred in one hand. I describe it below. I still don’t know if I played it well, badly, or somewhere in the middle.




Game: No Limit Hold’Em
Blinds: 5/10
Place: Mos Eisley (otherwise known as Commerce Casino--“a wretched hive of scum and villainry”)

My hand: 8d Qd

I’m on the button. Everyone folds to the cutoff, a terrible terrible player. He limps in. He’s already shown a willingness to call enormous off bets on very thin draws. He’s also on tilt. I have position and I feel pretty good about my chances of outplaying him after the flop. I raise to 40.00$. I figure I’ll either take down a small pot (of the blinds and the donkey’s limp) or he’ll call, and I’ll play heads-up, in position, against a poor player.

Instead, the Big Blind re-raises, making it 75.00$. Limping donkey calls (putting in 65.00$ more on top of the 10.00$ he’s called with, on a hand not good enough to raise the button and the blinds).

It comes back to me. I consider the Big Blind. He’s a decent player, I think. But, like most players at the middle-limits of NLHE, he’s already shown an inability to fold big hands. (He’s lost a large pot earlier when his overpair got beat by a set.) He’s clearly ahead of me at this point in the hand—I put him on KK or AA. However, I have a hand that will be very easy to get away from if I miss the flop. And if I do outflop him, I think he might pay me off. Also, there’s limping donkey. He can’t lay down anything; god knows he’ll pay me off.

If I call the BB’s raise, I’ll have a little more than 400.00$ left. The big blind has more chips than I do; the donkey has about 200.00$. That means I have a chance to turn my 400.00 into 1100.00$.

Or so I tell myself as I (perhaps mistakenly) call.


The flop: 8h 10d Jd

Huzzah and hurrah. This is about as good a flop as I can ask for. I have a diamond flush draw, an inside straight draw, and a pair. If the Big Blind has AA or KK, I have a total of 17 outs (two eights, three queens, three (non-diamond) nines, and nine diamonds). It's impossible to put the donkey on a hand, but even if it's something as good as 9/Q , I have outs to beat him.

The big blind bets 150.00$. The donkey goes all–in (it turns out to be $280.00). I think for not very long, and go all-in as well. The pot has gotten large enough to justify a call, and if I'm going to call 280.00, I may as well reraise. It's unlikely I'll push out the BB, but it's not impossible. Anyway, I'm willing to play for all my chips. Even though I’m trailing, I doubt I’m worse than a 40% dog. As long as neither player has a diamond draw, I like my chances.

The BB thinks for a while, and then calls.

He tables: Ad Ah
The donkey tables: Js 9c

I am 44% to win at this point. (I find, now). I have invested a total of 450.00 to try and win 1150.00$. I am being laid the correct odds. Which is small comfort when the turn and flop come 10, 2 no diamond, and the Aces rake the pot.

In retrospect, I guess I could have folded preflop. There was enough dead money at the table that it might have been smarter to wait for a more clearly favorable opportunity to get all my chips in the middle. While it's true that this was the statistically correct play, it's also true that, psychologically, it can be difficult to open a session by losing 600.00$.

Once the flop came, though, I can’t get away from that hand. Can I?

Thoughts?

Poker II

I first experienced casino poker in Lake Charles, Louisiana in 2003. (Actually in 1999, I lost 100.00$ playing 3/6 Limit at the Excalibur in Vegas, but that was before I knew how to play.) I drove there on a Friday afternoon, through the traffic-clogged pine forests of East Texas (immortalized in the mature work of Veronese). I checked into the Holiday Inn, drove to the casino, and played 3/5 No Limit till 4 A.M. The next day, I woke, played some more, and drove home. My total profit, minus hotel fees, was $500.00. At the time, it was a fortune. I felt like I'd gotten away with something. I felt like I'd committed a crime.

Last night, at the poker room I frequent in Houston I won $500.00 in four hours. But it was nothing like my first time, at the Lake. It was a letdown. Their Pot-Limit Omaha/8 game is so soft, so donkey-laden, that a three-digit win is really a loss. It’s like being given a ticket to a 95 flavor, all-you-can-eat, ice cream buffet and only trying two scoops of vanilla. Vanilla’s fine. It’s what the Incans ate. (Not really). But all those other flavors. The goat! The sea eel! The spotted orchid! And all I had was the vanilla?

Last week I described a hand I misplayed. This time I’ll describe one I think I played well. Or at least, not badly. (Of course, without seeing your opponents’ cards, you never know for sure how well you played.)


Date: 5/23/07
Game: PLO/8
Blinds: 1/2
Location: Leopard Lounge

My hand: 10s Jc Qh Ks

Thad the Donkey Prince makes his standard preflop raise of $10.00 from first position (likely holding: Ad 7h 8c Qs). Four people call. On the button, I also call. My hand has zero low potential, of course, but it has the ability to scoop the whole pot if high cards come. Thad’s bet means nothing. He raises five out of six hands he plays. I'm in position and there are lots of callers in front of me. It's an obvious call.


The flop: 6d 7h 8c

At this point, I’m done with the hand. A low exists; I don’t have it. Only one card—a nine—can help me; even then, it only gives me half the pot. The reason I make money in this game while people like Thad do not is because I follow the first rule of Omaha/8: never seat two members of the French Aristocracy next to each other at state functions.

That's not right.

The first rule, in fact, is: only play to scoop. (“Scoop” means win the entire pot, an outcome that’s possible only if your hand has low and high cards in it, or if no low exists.)

To my surprise, all five of the other players check in front of me. I check as well.

The turn: 9s

Money. I’ve just hit my inside straight. I have the nut high—the best possible high hand. The problem is that I have no low. I’m only going to win half the pot, and in Omaha/8, half pot wins are for suckers.

Someone—either Thad or the player after him—bets fifteen dollars. Two players call. The pot is about a hundred and twenty dollars. I reason as follows:
....If someone out there had a good low hand (A2, or even A3), wouldn’t they have bet the flop? Surely the A2 at least would have bet? (I don’t think the A2 should bet here, necessarily, but I also know the players in this game. If one of them had it, they’d bet it).
....With the exception of Thad, the other players remaining are smart and solid.
....Everyone at that table has pegged me as a super tight. My reputation is that I only play the Nuts. I have never once been caught bluffing. I have never once bet without the nuts, usually both ways. (Why I still get action, I don’t know).

The action comes to me. I raise the pot (130.00$).

As hoped, everybody folds.

As I scoop the pot, one of the other players asks, “how does it feel to have both the nut straight and the nut low?”

I say: “Pretty damn good, SUCK-A.”

Then I danced my funky jive chicken dance. It involved getting into a chicken suit, with an afro, and surfer pants. But it’s worth it.

No—I said nothing. I never call any attention to myself at a poker table.

By no stretch of the imagination could this bet qualify as a great stroke of brilliance; probably it was one that many people at the table would have made. Certainly it was one that many of the players at my home game—which is far, far harder than the Leopard—would have made.

Still, it did win me an entire pot, even though I had no low. I suspect that several people in the hand folded lows: 3/5, 2/4s, and the like. Since they were weak, their lows couldn’t stand to call a pot-sized bet, especially given the likelihood that I held both a high and low hand. (This is another of the many reasons not to play weak lows: even if they’re the best hand, they can’t call any large bets.)

This bet would never have worked in a Limit Omaha/8 game. Whatever I bet on the turn would comprise only a fraction of the total pot. Any reasonable low—probably even some unreasonable ones (3/5)—would likely hang around till the river, and I wouldn’t have been able to scoop.

The potential to push out mediocre lows with a made high hand is a crucial element of PLO8 strategy. It’s why I slant my play much more towards making high hands than making low ones. It’s also why I carry my “funky jive chicken” costume with me to games. People ask me, “T, what is that giant styrofoam beak sticking up out of your clothes?”

And I say: I have a thyroid condition.

And they feel ashamed.

Poker Recap I

The goals of this blog are few, and simple:

1) Enlighten the world to the heretofore neglected-genius of Gustavus Adolphus
2) Provide a much-needed forum for those brave men trying to clone the Brazilian tree frog from orchid pollen
3) Offer insights into the world of semi-professional poker. (Poker, as you might guess, is one of the ‘new careers’ referred to in the blog’s title. The other two being, as you probably already know, lumberjacking, and World Music critic for the Washington Post.)

So without further ado, here’s the first installment of what will be a recurring feature: The ANCIANT (A New Career In A New Town) Poker Recap.

Game: PLO Hi/Lo
Date: May 16
Blinds: 1/2

Last night went well: I played decently, caught cards, and walked out with my biggest single-session win to date. Two or three donkeys there were raising every hand pre-flop; it often cost 45$ to come in. With this kind of massive action, I had to wait for hands, and I tried to only play in late position.

The biggest donkey of all is a regular who I’ll call Thad. Thad is a familiar type in the poker world. From what he says about Omaha, it’s clear he has a good understanding of how it should be played. However, for reasons beyond my ken, his actual play is completely at odds with his analysis. He plays nearly every hand; he raises constantly, and he loses--big--every time he plays. I can only assume he’s independently wealthy, because the last four times he’s played he’s lost at least two grand a session.

For all his aggression, though, Thad is not a calling station; he will fold if other people bet into him, especially if (as is usually the case) his cards are sub-par.

Most of my hands last night were unremarkable. One, however, stands out. It was a hand I think I could have won, had I played it better.

The situation: I’m on the button. Thad, as usual, has raised pre-flop (to 15.00$). Three people call. I look down and see: (Ad, 5d, Ac, 9c). This is a clear calling hand: I have two ways to make the nut flush, pocket Aces (probably only good if an Ace hits), and a possible, if poor, low draw (A5). I call.

The flop comes: Kd, Qd, 6h

In first position, Thad leads out for 45.00. The other two players fold. Since I have a draw to the nut flush, I call.

The turn: 4s.

I have now picked up a bad low draw. Thad thinks for a second and bets 150.00 (the size of the pot).

I think. There is now 300.00 in the pot. It will cost me 150.00 to call and try to hit my flush; the pot is laying me 2 to 1. However, I am about 4 to 1 against; pot odds, therefore, would dictate that I fold. (For a discussion of pot odds, go here). My implied odds are also poor: I doubt very much if I’m going to make anything if a diamond does come on the river. Though donkey-like in many respects, Thad will almost certainly not pay off a bet on the river with something like two pair, or a set, if a flush has come, especially since, given this flop, a flush is the only conceivable hand I could be drawing to. A low card might give me half the pot, but it could very likely made Thad a better low.

On the other hand, Thad might easily have no low draw at all; he’s shown a willingness to bet with anything. It’s even possible that at this point he has nothing better than top pair, in which case an Ace alone would win me the high, (though that’s assuming I’m willing to call with only aces on the river, which is unlikely). He might even have a diamond draw of his own, in which case a diamond on the river WILL make me some money.

At this point I’m way way up for the night, which is another factor which probably influenced me.

I think for a while and decide to fold.

At the time, this was not a big deal. However, thinking it over since the game ended I’ve decided I misplayed the hand. My mistake, I think was on the flop. Instead of just calling Ted’s 45.00 bet, I should have raised, and made it, say, 125.00. My reputation at that table is of a super-solid, nuts-only player. The only times I’ve rereaised, prior to that hand, I’ve either had the stone cold nuts, or massive draws. If I reraise, Thad has to give me credit for a big hand. In which case, several good things could happen:

1) Thad can fold. If he has only top pair, he might do this. Not likely, given his play, but possible.

2) Thad can call. However, putting me on a big hand—a set of kings, maybe—he will check the turn (this is especially likely if he has a low set or bottom two pair). I will then check behind him, and get two free cards, the turn and river, for only 70.00 more. If I do hit my flush, it's possible, given the betting here, that Thad might pay me off. Prior to this hand, Thad has never seen me raise on a semi-bluff. He might put me on a set; when a diamond comes, therefore, he will assume it’s hurt me. He might even lead into me, trying to bluff; or, he might have a worse diamond hand himself, in which case he will definitely call a bet.

The possible negative outcome of a reraise on the flop, of course, is that Thad himself could have come back over the top and blown me out of the pot with a big re-reraise. I couldn’t call this kind of bet, of course, and I would have effectively prevented myself from trying to draw to my flush. However, given my playing style to date, Thad can probably only re-raise my bet with one hand; three kings. It’s possible he has this, but extremely unlikely. It’s a chance I should be willing to take.

My mistake here was not huge. I lost a small pot; reraising on the flop would have built a bigger pot, which, at that point in the night, was not what I was trying to do. However, I think it was a mistake, and I think that the reason I made it was because I was so far up for the night. I was playing cautious, trying to protect my winnings. As a result, I played badly.

Oh well. Try to do better next time.

(By the way, the dealer showed us the river: 8 of diamonds. I would have made the nut high, and possibly the winning low. Sigh.)